At present, China’s petrochemical industry is facing the dual challenges of global overcapacity and high domestic raw material costs. In particular, the shortage of low-cost feedstocks such as associated gas from oilfields and shale gas in China has led to persistently high production costs of core chemical products like ethylene. In 2023, a stark contrast emerged where U.S. counterparts reaped substantial profits while Chinese enterprises suffered across-the-board losses. How to break this dilemma? The article Raw Material Substitution Boosts High-Quality Development of China’s Petrochemical Industry published in the journal Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress points out a clear direction. Combining the core viewpoints of the original paper, this article helps readers understand the core logic and practical approaches of raw material substitution.

I. Recent Breakthroughs: Utilizing Idle Resources to Turn Low-Cost Fossil Raw Materials into High-Value Assets

China currently has tens of millions of tons of unutilized olefin and alkane mixtures, which are difficult to efficiently process using traditional technologies. The article proposes that original polymerization separation technology can realize the high-value conversion of these mixtures: α-olefins in the mixtures can be transformed into maleic anhydride-olefin alternating copolymers, which are widely used in formaldehyde-free wood adhesives, cement water reducers, UV stabilizers and other fields, with a market scale exceeding 20 million tons per year. The remaining unpolymerizable components can be used as low-cost feedstock for ethylene cracking, which is expected to reduce ethylene raw material costs to a level comparable to that of shale gas-based feedstocks.

Notably, this technology has been verified in practical applications. To date, two pilot plants with an annual output of 500 tons each and one commercial plant with an annual output of 10,000 tons have been constructed. Its technical maturity, economic benefits and social benefits have been fully recognized, providing enterprises with a feasible solution to optimize raw material structure and improve profitability in the short term.

II. Mid-Term Exploration: Embracing Green Raw Materials to Launch Low-Carbon Transition

With the advancement of the "dual carbon" goals, green and low-carbon development has become a mandatory requirement for the industry. The article states that in the medium term, focus should be placed on promoting the large-scale utilization of non-fossil raw materials such as carbon dioxide, non-grain biomass (straw, branches, etc.) and waste polymers. Research by the Qiao Jinliang team shows that these green raw materials can be converted into olefins or syngas through technologies such as microwave plasma gasification and catalytic reactions, which can then be used to produce synthetic oil—a high-quality feedstock for ethylene cracking.

For example, waste plastics and straw can be gasified to generate syngas; carbon dioxide can be converted into carbon monoxide at low cost through specific catalytic reactions, which then combines with other raw materials to produce syngas; even waste carbon fiber composites can be upgraded and recycled to obtain combustible gas and high-performance chopped carbon fibers. This series of technical pathways enables the petrochemical industry to reduce costs while achieving green development.

III. Long-Term Layout: Industrial Coupling Innovation to Realize Two-Way Empowerment of Biochemical and Petrochemical Industries

The article suggests that in the long run, we can learn from the practical experience of Petrobras and promote the in-depth integration of biochemical and petrochemical industries. Currently, petrochemical products made from bio-based raw materials command high prices but also come with relatively high costs and limited market demand. By establishing "sugar platforms" in regions equipped with existing ethylene plants and abundant non-grain biomass resources to produce non-grain bio-based petrochemical feedstocks, the same ethylene plant can flexibly switch between producing petroleum-based products and high-value-added bio-based products, such as bio-based polyethylene, polypropylene and nylon. This coupling model not only reduces the cost of bio-based products but also expands product categories and enhances market competitiveness, laying a solid foundation for the sustainable development of the industry.

IV. Core Value: Why Raw Material Substitution is the Key to Breaking the Dilemma?

The article clearly points out that there are three possible paths to change the current situation of China’s petrochemical industry: first, a sharp drop in crude oil prices; second, original development of high-value-added "blue ocean products"; third, realization of raw material substitution. Among them, raw material substitution has the highest probability of success, and its core value is reflected in three aspects: first, it solves the problem of raw material shortage, reduces dependence on imported crude oil and ensures supply chain security; second, it significantly reduces production costs, improves corporate profitability and helps cope with market fluctuations; third, it drives the green transition of the industry, facilitates the achievement of "dual carbon" goals and creates new industrial growth points.

Raw material substitution is not simply "changing raw materials", but a whole-chain optimization of "raw materials-process-products" through technological innovation. From utilizing idle resources to reduce costs in the short term, to promoting green raw materials for transition in the medium term, and to achieving industrial coupling and upgrading in the long term, this path clearly outlines a blueprint for the high-quality development of the petrochemical industry. For enterprises, focusing on and deploying relevant technological directions will become an important means to enhance core competitiveness. In the future, we will continue to interpret cutting-edge ind